This isn't an estimate of intrinsic value, it's just a yardstick.
My attempt to find a set of numbers that, when multiplied by some unknown constant, give IV.

The trend is just for convenience...it's a best-fit to (log) of the p rices in this range.
This year is pretty weak, primarily because things not keeping up with inflation, particularly subsidiary earnings
which have been below my predictive models by 10-14% for the last three quarters.

THESE NUMBERS ARE ALL AFTER INFLATION.
The rate of growth of the trend line is inflation + 8.58%...this has been a good stretch.
Perhaps a little bit too good...more than I usually anticipate.

Year    Metric    Trend     Vs trend
2012    242880    249709      -3%
2013    282056    271144       4%
2014    304681    294420       3%
2015    321701    319693       1%
2016    331418    347136      -5%
2017    363225    376935      -4%
2018    399628    409292      -2%
2019    460609    444426       4%
2020    481529    482577       0%
2021    556656    524002       6%
2022    547244    568983      -4%

I'm not as confident of these numbers as I usually am.
There are some adjustments that I'd like to make that I have not done.
I really need to yank out all the "equity method" stuff, currently counted at sliding book value, and replace it with a multiple of earnings on them.

I did put in an adjustment for the value of Alleghany Capital earnings rate.
Since they were acquired so late in the year, we took the hit on the full cost of purchasing them but didn't get the full year of earnings.
That adjustment added $1233 per share, if you're interested.

Jim

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

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