No. of Recommendations: 5
You’ve offered a range of motives for why Bibi might start a war without addressing why the goal of intervening in the US election isn’t one of them. The Democratic Party has an ambiguous relationship with conservatives in Israel and even with Kamala in office the Israeli state has to be concerned about how far she can support them politically.
Trump, on the other had, has no qualms about supporting the most militant racists in the settler movement. Given this, the war with Hezbullah makes a lot of sense in pushing against the fissures in the Democratic Party political alliance.
It barely has any impact in pushing against the Democratic Party alliance - in fact, I think it helps the Democrats. Hezbollah is less connected to the cause of Palestinian statehood, and more transparently a projection of Iranian military hegemony in the region, than Hamas (much less conflict in the West Bank). Engaging with Lebanon is more likely to help Harris than hurt her, because it distracts away from the Israel-Palestinian conflict. It's far easier - and defensible for Democrats - to justify sending arms to Israel to fight against Hezbollah than to fight in Gaza. The more they can talk about things going on in the region other than bombings in Gaza, the better for them. At worst it's somewhat of a wash for Democrats.
That's why the domestic factors I raised are so much more significant. They launched now because they were about to lose a once-in-a-generation tactical coup against Hezbollah's personnel and communications network. It's politically beneficial domestically to Netanyahu to show movement in the war right around 10/7, especially given that Israel had to abandon a big chunk of territory up along the Lebanese border.
It would be silly for Netanyahu to base the decision whether to launch or not based on something as minor as an indirect and potentially trivial impact on the U.S. election - one that could just as easily be a benefit to the Democrats as the Republicans - rather than the far more significant direct impacts on his own country.
