No. of Recommendations: 9
Just anecdotally: This moment in time will be a huge outlier in a future update of Ray's table:
- BRK-A closed at $686,182. 6 months ago when Price/BV was around 1.6 it closed at $634440 => +6%
- Even more extreme if going one month back, as it closed at $715,300 end of August and $616,561 end of Feb when Price/BV also was around 1.6 => +16%.
The bucket which comes closest in Ray's table is a Price/BV of (even lower) 1.55, with average(!) six months forward returns of -1,53% since 2000. Without knowing the standard deviation of that bucket it's hard to say how extreme this outlier really is, but +6% and +16% sure do look extremely deviating from those averages.
Btw: In case anybody is interested Ray's post motivated me to update my slightly modified version of Jim's "Correlation between Brk's price and the WMA (weighted moving average) of peak BV, inflation adjusted" chart:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1XhVEkCju0hwNwXgqn...To be taken with 2 grains of salt: One, that I guessed Q3 BV (at $440,000) instead of waiting a little until it's published. Second, that 2024 BV numbers are not yet inflation adjusted. Minor flaws which should not really influence the not surprising result that valued that way Berkshire is more expensive than usual.
