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How Trump Miscalculated in Iran

He followed his Venezuela model, not accounting for the ideological character of the regime in Tehran.

Donald Trump threatened to end Iranian civilization, then sued for peace. If the two-week cease-fire is extended, which seems likely, the extra time won’t resolve the conflict’s underlying causes. …

The hardened men who rule Iran see this war in existential terms. Their planning appears more judicious than the U.S. initially assumed. They husband munitions for less intense but persistent barrages. The Islamic Republic’s leaders have thus prolonged the war and rattled the global economy. Western anxiety over this conflict and the start of negotiations between Tehran and Washington make it less likely that America—and by extension Israel—might come to the aid of another Iranian insurrection.

Survival has always been the clerical regime’s primary objective. Its rulers truly believe that the country’s vast internal dissent is in part fueled by foreign conspiracies. If they inflict enough pain on the U.S. and encourage it to disengage from the Middle East, that makes it less likely that the millions of Iranians who loathe the regime will rally successfully against it.

Compromising on anything fundamental through diplomacy with Washington threatens the regime at home. Too much of the Islamic Republic’s aura has already been compromised. Too many iconic leaders have been killed, too much of Iran’s defense degraded. Since the pro-democracy Green Movement in 2009, the regime has understood that more nationwide protests are always on the horizon. This perpetual instability likely led many Israelis, perhaps first and foremost Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to believe that the regime was more brittle than it actually was. Hit it hard enough in the right spots—eliminate the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and many of his minions—and the nezam, the system, might unravel.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/how-trump-miscalculate...

When even the hard right Wall Street Journal editorial board thinks you’ve cuffed up, that’s saying something.

Now that we’ve raised oil prices worldwide, given Iran control over the Strait of Hormuz, aided Russia and China while harming Western Allies, weakened NATO, harmed the US’ world standing, killed thousands of Iranians, succeeded in regime change with an ever worse regime, and showed ourselves to be helpless to bring the situation back to where it was in the first place, I have to ask: Where Go From Here?

The debacle in Iran can be laid squarely at the feet of the USA starting in the early 50's. And with every intervention it only gets worse. Our execrable record of results when meddling with the internal affairs of foreign countries is inevitably making enemies, killing innocents and accomplishing squat.

Since the pro-democracy Green Movement in 2009, the regime has understood that more nationwide protests are always on the horizon.

The Israelis were bragging, in January, that Mossad agents were in country, agitating the demonstrations. But the project to take down Iran has been going much longer than that.

Here, again, is the interview with General Clark, from 2007, talking about the project, by the US, Saudi, and others, to destabilize Iran, going back years. For those scoring at home, the seven countries the US was determined to wreck, since 2001, are Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and, last, Iran.

General W. Clark: "This is a memo of how we're going to take out seven countries in five years."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAnNJW9_KYA

God and Savior Trump probably figures everyone is as corrupt as he is. He bought off the President of Panama, who has expelled Hutchison, a Chinese company, from the Ports near the Panama Canal. He bought off the #2 in Venezuela, so she will bend over for the US. He probably figured, if he killed off the top people in Iran, he could find someone he could buy.

Speaking of the Venezuelan project, the Proles don't seem happy.

Venezuela police tear gas protesters calling for pay and pension rises

Police in Caracas on Thursday launched tear gas at thousands of protesters marching towards the presidential palace to demand pay raises and pension increases. Interim President Delcy Rodriguez announced wage increases on May 1 without disclosing the amount, as many Venezuelans live on salaries so low they struggle to survive.

https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20260409-vene...

Meanwhile, NBC News, last night, showed a clip from an interview with the President of Cuba. The reporter asked him if he would resign. He bristled. She said that is what Trump the Conqueror is demanding. He bristled more, and said he was not elected by the United States. Seems the attitude that the entire world must jump, at the demand of Trump the Conqueror, isn't going over very well in some corners.

Steve

The debacle in Iran can be laid squarely at the feet of the USA starting in the early 50's. And with every intervention it only gets worse. Our execrable record of results when meddling with the internal affairs of foreign countries is inevitably making enemies, killing innocents and accomplishing squat.

Our rhetoric has consistently been "We stand for the rights of the people of the world to determine their own destinies through democratic, free and fair elections."

Our behavior has done a very poor job of matching that rhetoric. We've installed and/or supported dictator after dictator as long as they signed onto the anti-communism pledge, or more recently- the anti-Islamist pledge.

And then we wonder why our foreign policy is called hypocritical.

Some call it "real politik". I call it "failure".

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