No. of Recommendations: 2
betting on political events is illegal in the United States.Hmm...
Isn't this 'betting on political events'?
At Interactive Brokers:
New Weekly Contracts: Will the Shutdown End by This Friday, or Next Friday?, Mamdani Update: Oct. 7, 2025We have just listed new government shutdown contracts that expire every week starting on Oct. 10 through Nov. 7. The odds of the funding lapse ending range from 5% to 84% in the five weeks beginning this Friday, with participants increasing their expectation of a resolution as time passes. The probability for Washington to reopen in three days stands at only 5%, but it climbs to 38% and 59% for Oct. 17 and Oct. 24. Chances of an agreement by Halloween and Nov. 7 are considerably higher, at 69% and 84%. Meanwhile, despite recent news that President Trump is considering negotiations with Democrats, there’s still an elevated chance of an extended standoff. Messaging has been quite mixed, as potential concessions coincide with threats of federal layoffs. The GOP wants to pass a bill quickly and work across the aisle to resolve health care topics later, while the Democrats want to promptly address Medicaid cuts and protect health insurance subsides that are scheduled to terminate at year-end.
If you want to go with a long shot bet, odds the shutdown will end by this Friday are at 5%.
https://www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/traders-...
