We haven’t had a real* recession since the late 2000s. That’s quite a long time. There are apparently some people out there, including some noted economists, that seem to believe that “recessions have been cured” by rapid fed action combined with rapid government spending (and borrowing). But I don’t know if we should believe that, I certainly don’t. So we are “due” for a recession and it is sure to arrive someday. I thought it would have arrived in late 2023 through 2024, but I was wrong. I don’t know if it’ll be in 2025 or 2026, but I would think it will arrive before the end of the decade. As time passes without one, it becomes easier and easier to predict a recession.

* “Real” as in not pandemic induced, and instead part of the normal business cycle.