Unfortunately - a Fear/Greed classification is extremely coarse ....one has to look levels deeper.

(1) The 2 breadth indicators ( H-L and McClellan) points to deteriorating breadth - whether that's extreme fear level .... unknown. But having weak breadth at market highs is not a good sign - so this classification seems warranted

(2) VIX at 12 is not neutral - it shows Greed. That's possibly in the bottom 5 percentile values

The 2 Bond indices are FLAWED

(3) the Overall one because its built on a SAFE HAVEN assumption. ie when market corrects people flee to Bonds. That's just not the environment here - infact quite the opposite. The last bear was on an Interest Rate correction - ie both Bonds and Equities dropped.

Currently rates are backing away - with receding concerns of inflation. Lower rates = Better bond returns .

(4) The Junk spread is interesting - I think its got to do with more of a Supply/Demand situation and some concerns of deteriorating credit. When 10Y Treasuries are yielding close to 5% (4+% steady) - You need a LOT of spread ie Yield issuance to make the extra risk attractive. REITs might just be a better option than Corporate.

Best

Mechanical Investing FAQ

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