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Hmm, there's a big difference between a great programmer and a typical programmer.
I can't think of many human skills with such a wide distribution of skill. Maybe singing?
But of course in terms of churn in the job market, it doesn't have to knock out the best.
So, I'd rephrase:
ChatGPT does not have to be perfect, just better than an average human in that profession, which it will be soon.
This is very very true. Few white collar professions other than programming have such a wide distribution of productivity. (Non white collar like athletics are more common.)
That's why AI is such a threat to humans' jobs. From "better than average" to "better than the best", while orders of magnitude more, is achievable in far less time for AI than to a human.
Eg I have heard that in programming, exceptional to average productivity ratio in 1:100. Almost insurmountable for even smart humans. But it's just 100x more computing power for an AI.
AI beat Go champion. Programming too is a game assuming perfect or even "good" input requirements. And far more structured than a blue collar pursuit like welding or basketball.
