No. of Recommendations: 10
You have described stagflation. We have already lived through this in the late 1970s.
Inflation soared as the economy slowed. (To see the rate of change click on the blue Edit Graph button in the upper right-hand corner.)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSLhttps://www.statista.com/statistics/1404145/us-dol...The USD Index fell from 106 in 1976 to 85 in December 1979.
Then Fed Chair Paul Volcker cranked up the fed funds rate and precipitated the harsh 1980 - 82 recession.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDSDon't call equities "fungible" since the stock market drops during a recession while a house will still be a house even if its price drops. (It can be exchanged for another house at the same price.)
Here is a historical chart of SPX which can be seen both nominal and inflation-adjusted. The inflation-adjusted SPX plunged between 1970 and 1980 during the Guns'N'Butter era of government spending on both the Vietnam war and the war on poverty plus the start of Medicare in 1965.
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historical-pricesI remember buying Hershey bars for a nickel and a slice of pizza for 15 cents.
Remember that consumer price inflation happens when the money in the hands of consumers grows faster than the consumer goods and services they are buying. (Increasing QE at the Federal Reserve doesn't get into consumer hands but increases asset prices.) The nonpartisan CBO describes a tsunami of government deficits.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60870I agree with your conclusion. Except that the government may understate inflation (which would reduce the income from inflation-protected bonds). And stocks will not hold their value if the bubble bursts and/or there is a recession.
Wendy
