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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝🐝🐝 BRONZE
SHREWD
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Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: OT: big companies
Date: 08/03/2023 5:42 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 10
From what I gather, VL sometimes is up to a year out-of-date...

Yes, some of their data fields are updated only from the last full year's report.
That includes "Return on Shareholders Equity" and "Sales Growth 5-Year".
They have a quarterly ROE figure, but it's only the ROE in the latest quarter, not for the trailing four quarters.
Trailing four quarters ROE would be better, but the annual figure seems to work fine, and leads to lower portfolio turnover too.

The picks I posted were from earlier in July, which would account for some differences in the results.
Using the current data, I think the picks would go like this:

* Number with any valid Timeliness rank 1-5: 1459 stocks
* Of those, also with a positive dividend: 965 stocks
* 30% of 965 = 289.5 stocks, let's say 290.
* Sorting the 965 stocks by ROE, the cutoff to get 290 stocks is between ROE 25.53 and 25.47
* For those 290 stocks, I calculate [Cash - Long Term Debt], and sort on that.
* The top 40 I get from that process, with the calculation fields shown:

Ticker    Time               Long-Term    Return on    Current     Cash -
Symbol Rank Cash Debt Equity Dividend Debt
MSFT Yes 104757 47032 41.69 2.75 57725
TSM Yes 43697.2 27385.3 33.62 1.8 16311.9
CSCO Yes 19267 8416 35.43 1.56 10851
ACN Yes 7893.8 45.9 31.11 4.72 7847.9
COST Yes 11049 6484 28.31 4.08 4565
NKE Yes 12997 8920 39.56 1.36 4077
NVDA Yes 13296 9703 37.85 0.16 3593
BHP Yes 17236 13806 47.47 3.8 3430
INFY Yes 3185 0 29.85 0.42 3185
TJX Yes 6226.8 3354.8 54.68 1.33 2872
ROST Yes 4922.4 2452.3 42.42 1.39 2470.1
EOG Yes 5972 3795 32.6 3.4 2177
EXPD Yes 2034.1 0 43.64 1.38 2034.1
STM Yes 4518 2542 31.19 0.24 1976
AMP Yes 7097 5184 70.82 5.4 1913
EQH Yes 5803 4472 121.17 0.88 1331
LOGI Yes 1328.7 0 26.86 1.16 1328.7
SIG Yes 1166.8 147.4 29.97 0.92 1019.4
HLI Yes 942.8 0.5 30.32 2.22 942.3
TER Yes 894.4 0 29.18 0.48 894.4
TXN Yes 9067 8235 60.01 4.96 832
SEIC Yes 831.4 40 29.37 0.86 791.4
KLIC Yes 775.5 0 37.34 0.76 775.5
MPWR Yes 737.9 0 35.93 4 737.9
WIRE Yes 730.6 0 39.47 0.08 730.6
BBY Yes 1874 1160 57.13 3.68 714
PBF Yes 2203.6 1492.8 58.36 0.8 710.8
NTAP Yes 3070 2389 106.12 2.1 681
MLI Yes 678.9 1.2 36.75 1.3 677.7
WFG Yes 1162 499 25.92 1.2 663
RHI Yes 619 0 43.34 2.02 619
PAYX Yes 1222 798.2 44.58 3.7 423.8
CNS Yes 420.4 0 50.67 2.28 420.4
NSP Yes 765.9 369.4 220.67 2.28 396.5
DKS Yes 1924.4 1540.6 42.2 4 383.8
WSM Yes 367.3 0 66.3 3.6 367.3
LPLA Yes 3046.9 2717.4 39.01 1.2 329.5
LSTR Yes 393.5 67.2 48.56 1.2 326.3
UFPI Yes 595.4 275.2 27.01 1.05 320.2
BCC Yes 748.9 444.6 52.67 0.63 304.3

These picks are created from the data set released the morning of Monday July 31, with the download file name "2023-08-04"
(it's the data set for the week ending August 4, so they're always dated in the future)

I don't guarantee a perfect match, but to quote any aging programmer, "it should work".

Note, there is one "bug" in this process.
I believe it's the same issue in the calculation above as in the backtest, and (I think) also in the VL data set I have: it doesn't distinguish between long term debt field unpopulated, and long term debt of zero.
But the backtest works fine, so I'm good with it.
This is a "shotgut" approach to investing, not a "rifle" approach. A few little lead pellets will always go astray, but it's the overall result that matters.

Jim
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