Bringing into this thread a chart that Jim posted some time ago:

https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=393116117

"
Average one year forward REAL returns, based on ratio of price to peak-to-date book per share on purchase date.
Ending dates smoothed a bit.

First column is the average price-to-peak-book in that bucket. Each bucket is 1/20th of the observation start dates.
Second column is the average real one year return starting with a P/peakB in that bucket.
Third column is my smoothing of that data.
(I did a linear fit, and a cubic fit, and averaged those two results)


P/Peak Obser Model
1.075 34.6% 30.1%
1.165 22.2% 20.6%
1.204 19.1% 17.5%
1.250 15.4% 14.5%
1.295 10.5% 12.1%
1.323 4.6% 10.8%
1.343 5.5% 10.0%
1.359 9.7% 9.4%
1.376 8.5% 8.8%
1.392 5.5% 8.2%
1.412 4.5% 7.6%
1.438 5.7% 6.9%
1.461 6.8% 6.2%
1.483 5.3% 5.6%
1.509 7.7% 4.9%
1.537 8.1% 4.0%
1.579 3.5% 2.7%
1.638 4.0% 0.4%
1.693 -2.2% -2.4%
1.808 -12.0% -10.9%
"

1.56 Price to Peak Book today per my calcs, expected 1 year forward return using Friday's closing share price, interpolated from the modeled returns: ~3.4%

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

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