No. of Recommendations: 3
But also nobody wants to use their troops in a running gun battle against 15K Hamas soldiers in urban warfare in Gaza, where air or artillery support is fraught with repercussions.
That's why Hamas has to agree to this...or the IDF finishes the job. The Hamas clowns have a choice - they can put their weapons down and be a part of this -or- watch as their former hosts in Qatar, Turkey and elsewhere shout O'le as the Israeli bull known as the Mossad hunts them down. The single biggest reason for the peach deal moving forward was that Hamass' support among the Arab states is at an end.
Everyone has said that they've agreed to a new occupation of Gaza...except that Hamas hasn't exactly agreed to lay down their guns and give up their presence in Gazan "politics," so we don't have a lot of certainty around that.
And that's why this is a 20-step process, not a single signing ceremony on the deck of the USS Missouri. Releasing the hostages and having the IDF partially withdraw was step 1.
Because they might accomplish that goal through mass deprivation of human rights. You might still think it's worth it in order to keep a lid on Gaza, but it's still a bad thing if the new "Board of Peace" ends up instituting a repressive authoritarian regime in order to keep Hamas and the PFLP from gaining a foothold.
They're not getting the US Constitution tomorrow in Gaza, nor should they. There will be a transition period. If that means some ex-Hamasnik gets arrested for putting up a few dozen Intifada forever! posters, then I'm fine with that.
I agree we can only speculate at this point, but I disagree that it will come down to anything having to do with Palestinian standard of living. It entirely comes down to whether Hamas - the people with the guns - are either willing to stand down and cede power to the new regime and/or whether the new regime is willing to fight and kill Hamas if they don't.
If Hamas doesn't stand down then the IDF flattens the rest of Gaza with the blessing of the surrounding Arab states and the US, that's what. As has been pointed out, the hostages were both a tactical asset and a strategic millstone around the Gazans' necks. If they keep up their nonsense without the tactical leverage of hostages in light of the deal then literally no one will have any sympathy for them. And certainly no blame for the Israelis should they decide to keep going.
Absent a strong democratic system where elections can be held and the outcomes of those elections can be enforced, the ability to determine who will be in the government often comes down to who has the guns, not who has the majority. Hamas has all the guns, they've spent the last ~20 years killing all the Palestinian people who might oppose them before 10/7, and it looks like they're already starting to kill all the Palestinians who might try to oppose them during this ceasefire period.
The Palestinian people (writ large) are not going to get to choose the future of Gaza. That's the whole point of the Peace Plan structure. The future of Gaza is going to be decided by the choices of Hamas and the various ME countries who are contemplated to contribute the security forces (I assume the U.S. will not be sending material troops, though I suppose that could be wrong). Not the Palestinian people, and long before there's any "standard of living" to be measured.
And...? So what?
Again: there's no George Washington over there. No Thomas Jefferson. No Alexander Hamilton or Ben Franklin. They need time for whatever passes for that to gain strength and find a voice.
And that's an acceptable outcome.
The future of Gaza is going to be decided by the choices of Hamas and the various ME countries who are contemplated to contribute the security forces (I assume the U.S. will not be sending material troops, though I suppose that could be wrong). Not the Palestinian people, and long before there's any "standard of living" to be measured.
Underlying this is the very large assumption that there's actual daylight between Hamas and the regular Palestinian Joe. I don't be believe there is much daylight. At. All.
