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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: Uwharrie   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: The Future and the Law of Large Numbers
Date: 08/16/2024 10:18 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 7
Some information:

• As Jim has recently re-confirmed, Berkshire has been compounding book value at an amazingly steady rate over the past ten years.

• Berkshire is the 15th biggest corporation in the world. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_comp...

Berkshire is the 7th largest U.S. corporation by revenue: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_comp...

• John Huber runs a successful fund and gives his thoughts why Buffett is paring Berkshire's Apple stake. Please note how his analysis delves into the limited list of investment opportunities with scale and quality available to Berkshire. https://basehitinvesting.substack.com/p/thoughts-o...

What are your thoughts as to how the Law of Large Numbers plays out at Berkshire in the next two years and also in the years post-Buffett? Spin-out into corporate groups akin to what Danaher did? Buy back gobs of Berkshire stock whenever it is cheap, say, during a recession? Keep soldering on as it has been doing and find ways to drive organic growth capable of maintaining the long-standing growth curve? Other thoughts and venues?

Uwharrie
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Author: nola622 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: The Future and the Law of Large Numbers
Date: 08/16/2024 10:34 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 18
The Huber article was good - thanks for sharing it. I was surprised in his dividend discussion that he didn't mention that a dollar of cash inside Berkshire is being valued at $1.50 by the market, so even without the tax considerations it is better to sell a portion of your position if you want/need a "dividend" than it is to pay out a special or regular dividend.

I suspect Berkshire will be a share repurchase machine long before a dollar inside Berkshire is valued at less than a dollar by the market. So BRK at less than 1x book value seems increasingly unlikely.

So dividends don't really seem rational and Berkshire prides itself on being rational over being conventional.

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Author: BRKNut   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: The Future and the Law of Large Numbers
Date: 08/20/2024 9:12 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 3
It’s been a head scratcher period of Berkshire holding AAPL. The weak correlation between the market value of AAPL within and without Berkshire. It appears to me that we just witnessed a Haley’s Comet equivalent viewed from within Berkshire. Only that comets show off nothing more than light as it streaks across the sky. AAPL has left us over $100 Billion of green material behind.

So much for market wisdom.
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