No. of Recommendations: 32
Very nice.
Head and shoulders above most of the analysis you see out there.
At an 18 multiple, that puts the index real price at 190 * 18 = 3420 at 2032 yearend.
This is the biggest wildcard.
Though that sounds entirely plausible as a number, and I have no particular argument with it, it's extraordinarily difficult to forecast what a "normal" market multiple might be in future.
I have given up making strong assumptions about the future normal valuation of the broad market, hedging all my thoughts and comments with "if it's like what has been typical since 1995..."
Consider:
In 1982 the market was trading at 5.9 times smoothed real earnings.
In 2000 the market was trading at 42.6 times smoothed real earnings.
What's strange is not the variation as such, but that each of those was considered normal at the time--each extreme was, almost axiomatically, the world's consensus.
Jim
PS, extremes do have a bit of predictive power.
From that date in 1982, the forward real total return over the next seven years was +18.1%/year.
From that date in 2000, the forward real total return over the next seven years was -4.1%/year.
Unfortunately, there is no sign that lights up when we reach an extreme.
