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- Manlobbi
Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) ❤
No. of Recommendations: 20
It’s crazy.
I have 70% of my account in Brk.
Brk is up 35% 1 year. 70% 2 year.
I traded maybe 50 stocks this year. Even if I took out the biggest loser, my account still didnt beat Brk. I had a handful stocks that beat brk but all were too speculative to commit big size to them.
I would have been much richer this year if I had just keep everything in brk.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Same here. Its crazy.
Still have over 80% of NW in Berkshire even tho I’ve sold some this year. I’m waiting on 2025 to sell more.
No. of Recommendations: 5
Cardude,
My conclusion is different from yours. I think i am better off trade less and should have keep more in brk. I will not be selling any and i may even want to buy more brk next year
No. of Recommendations: 12
Yes the "let me tell you my superb performance" chants will be on the extreme side this year. Of the two forums I read, the other one being dominated -very wisely - by Fairfax in recent years, the "I'm up!" figures will be off the charts. I have owned Berk since Jan 10, 1975 and Fairfax since March 4, 1994, so I've seen the good times and not-so-good.
Business value change vs stock price change, it is always enjoyable to witness the divergence.
I enjoy thinking things such as "What's the chance of stock prices X years from now at least temporarily jolting down below today's quotes?" My guess is Fairfax's price being lower is somewhat less than Berk's being lower, but it isn't really meaningful at all if you are long term. Both businesses, whatever their value is today, seem ok to me. But the future squote yearly performance figures of both are going to go way-way-way-way down from recent years...at least in my view.
But compared to Mr. Market I think Berk and Fairfax will compare well.
Away from even the most promoted stuff today...I remember the euphoria around Pfizer's incredible drug pipeline in the late 1990's - and today it is Lilly. Check Pfizer's last 20 chart for entertainment.
But there are so many FOMO limited supply "assets" with no income or profits and Wall Street is one heck of a selling platform. These "assets" and the TT in my view will put the dot-com era to shame.
Business value and economic reality both are of little importance when the chase in on. The faster the flashy prey runs the more it will suck in everything and everyone. Parents will likely sell the braces off their children's teeth to join this parade before it ends.
Life is great...
...if you can stand it!
No. of Recommendations: 2
sleepydragon,
I made the same observation :-).
The year would have been better if I had done absolutely nothing.
The year was mixed. I sold some Berkshire at the beginning of the year.
Bought some Occidental, but sold it pretty immediately with a small loss after I thought that Berkshire will be the better investment.
But I got lucky, too.
On the Election Day I loaded up on Berkshire again, because most serious polls were showing Trump will win.
Now I am back to 100% in Berkshire and sleeping very well.
My diversification attempts failed miserably.
It is very hard to beat Berkshire!!!
It is very easy with Berkshire to get a "big seller regret syndrome".
The share price tends to be exponentially upward longer-term.
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quick...
No. of Recommendations: 2
<<The year would have been better if I had done absolutely nothing.<<
True in years with parabolic market rises like the past 2. Yes. Always.
No. of Recommendations: 11
For everyone's entertainment...
Somewhere in the mid 1990's I think, my memory is challenged, Prem Watsa was initially profiled as the "Buffett of the north" in all of the business media. Fairfax, the stock, went to more than 4 times book value!
And just 2 or 3 years ago Fairfax was less than 1/2 of book!
Cycles...they cycle. Same guy, same company, same future the entire time as euphoria and despair rotate.
No. of Recommendations: 2
"<<The year would have been better if I had done absolutely nothing.<<
True in years with parabolic market rises like the past 2. Yes. Always."
Buffett: "The people who check the price daily have not made the money that
the people who have forgotten about it basically have over the years."
No. of Recommendations: 4
I would have been much richer this year if I had just keep everything in brk.
I’m pretty sure that’s accurate for most of my investing life, except for a short period in the 90’s where I hopped aboard the tech bubble and then managed to hop off just before the train went off the rails.
No. of Recommendations: 10
The last year was the easiest of my investing career. WEB has said that he has no FOMO or jealousy in investments, he is just fine seeing other people make money their way, he is happy as long as he has a good grasp on his investments and they are doing more or less what he foresees in them.
I felt confident cutting back on BRK in my tax free accounts, because there were good opportunities in high yield investments. I was looking for yields of 7-9% and expected a rate cut would give me another 5% CG boost. A recession was a real possibility, and that would have accelerated rate cuts. A fairly safe 12% return looked just fine. As it worked out, I got a 5-15% CG boost, and had quite a few investments with a total return of 20%. The funds I moved out of BRK lagged BRK, but I'm OK with that, my plan was sound and I also have a seriously disproportionate amount of BRK in taxable accounts.
Going forward is tougher. I have concerns the new administration will enact policies which could bring inflation back up. A recession seems likely sometime soon, they are not rare and it seems a bit overdue. The stock market certainly has some froth to work off. We all did great last year, but I'm becoming a bit defensive going forward, moving to lower yield, safer assets in the tax free accounts, cashing in some BRK in the taxable accounts and mentally preparing myself for some lackluster returns. As William Bernstein says, "When you've won the game, stop playing". Capital gains taxes keep me on the field, but that is probably a good thing for the long term money.
No. of Recommendations: 2
BRK is around 1/3 of my portfolio. I always benchmark my return to Berkshire's as well as S&P 500. It had been a decent year for me so far. YTD Portfolio return beats Berkshire's but not by a big amount.
My 5-year annualized return beat S&P by about 10%+. Beat BRK handily in 5-year and 10-year duration. Had paid close to zero tax on stock capital gain. BRK is now on my sell list switching out to other better prospects.
No. of Recommendations: 4
Beat BRK handily in 5-year and 10-year duration. ..... BRK is now on my sell list switching out to other better prospects.
Let us know what you are switching to and why you see them as better prospects. And report back on how it goes!
No. of Recommendations: 12
Well done and that’s what makes markets! I’m quite content holding nearly 70% of my investable assets in Berkshire- 1/2/3 year returns are ~Up 34%/52%/74% respectively. Content to trust mgt, leave things on cruise control & avoid frictional fees for all the helpers or govt. Lots of free time & quality sleep too. Certainly, one expects such gaudy results going forward in a trillion dollar conglomerate but Wow, what a recent chapter in the recent price appreciation of Berkshire! I like how we are positioned going forward, whatever the landscape.
No. of Recommendations: 5
Let us know what you are switching to and why you see them as better prospects.
I just looked at my top 5 holdings this year (89% of portfolio) and Berkshire's return was the second worst (Apple was the only tech stock and worst at 24% YTD). One or two year's return in a bull market doesn't mean anything. It just so happened.
As far as I am concerned, most investment discussions does not help my cause to stay apart and think most independently. I don't normally engage in detailed stock discussions and in those rare occasions only somewhat after the facts as learning reflections. It just takes too much effort from me and serves no purpose but clouded my unfiltered angles.
I am very risk averse and disproportionally laser-focus on avoiding big downside. To me that is a more important factor to good long term result.
Gapping risk/reward layup is very rare. And even when presented themselves it usually takes me a longer while than most people to warm up to the prospect. I like to buy cheap and continue to buy as it gets cheaper (or at least not much more expansive). I can offer two typical and recent examples of what usually allow me to set up for huge gains ... William Sonoma from May '22 under 60 and Altria from Dec '23 under 42 with 10% dividend yield. These are good value investments but how come no one seems to be keen? (since no high profile gurus took notice?)
