Post #19119 by AdrianC on the US Policy board

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Definitely a lot more traditional variance presentation of business units from Greg.

Yeah. He definitely seems to have taken Charlie's comment "Greg will keep the culture" to heart. That's good.

Good letter. A bit buzz-wordy. Nothing exciting.

YOY performance a little weaker and may continue in 2026.

Yup. Op earnings down 6%.

However, when you add it all up with the model. My overall estimate of IV is slightly higher. Mainly because even though underwriting for the insurance unites declined, it is still well above historical average and my future value for IV is based on historical average and on the insurance. Operating divisions seem to be growing earnings at a mid single digit level.

Bottom line is my overall IV goes from approximately $530 to $539. Of course a precise measurement like this is unrealistic. So lets say $525 to $550. Likely to be at least $575 by year end.

As usual, my 5-groves spits out a lower number: $460-$480
Look through: $470
Shareholder Equity + Float + 1/2 Deferred Taxes: $424
Book value: $332.55

I had trouble with Partially Owned Businesses Earnings Value. It's getting to be quite trivial though (1% of value).

However, my guess is with the headlines and lack of buybacks and dividend prospects the stock price is likely to move back under $500 next week.

Agreed. Can't predict the market and don't try, but I'm not a buyer or seller.

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