No idea what happens to the Berkshire portfolio in 2026 when Mr Buffett completes his handover but can think of a few considerations:

1. It’s hard to sell out of such large positions and get into new similar size positions

2. Deferred taxes are a very material reason to hold

3. A new manager can’t reasonably expect to have the conviction in a former manager’s picks. This is particularly pronounced with such extreme concentration and the issue grows over time. Conviction is extremely important in managing the portfolio

4. Full valuations make selling easier

5. Berkshire has too much cash already

6. Perhaps some of the Buffett picks are forever holdings for any manager

7. Maybe some picks like Occidental have strategic importance and would not be sold

Not surprising Berkshire is a net seller of stocks of late.

Maybe all things considered, the new manager puts their mark down during the next market crash and Buffett’s picks become less significant over time. That could easily happen during the next 5 years, given everything that is going on.

Posted to learn something, so let me know.

US Policy FAQ

---

Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.