No. of Recommendations: 1
Here is another transcript of the earnings call, which doesn't seem to have the paywall problem that Seeking Alpha has:
https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earning...Reading over this quickly a first time, I think the results are impressive. The current market cap (in USD) is $33b, and they made $3.9b in net earnings last year, for a P/E of 8.6. For a variety of reasons, I think that even these impressive are probably understated, for 2 major reasons:
(i) treasury rates increased, giving them a net loss of $530m, but this is a $1b negative swing fromt he previous year when they had gains of $496m from the bond portfolio. These will fluctuate from year to year, but the will tend to net out over time, and higher rates position them for higher interest income in future years;
(ii) the strength of the US dollar hurt their USD-denominated earnings by $477m, largely in Q4 when the USD surged after the election.
The insurance business, Fairfax's primary activity, did really well in 2024, with net premiums up 12.6% and a combined ratio of 92.7, making for underwriting profit of $1.8b (I believe this is pre-tax). Interest and dividend income was $2.5b, and earnings from investments and associates were $956m, which includes the negative impact of higher treasury rates on the bond portfolio. It does include some one-time gains from investments sold (Stelco) and reevaluated upwards (Peak Achievement, because they acquired the 57.6% of the business they didn't already own.)
They also have several investments that I think have a large upside: Ki Insurance, Digit insurance (which may IPO this year) and the Bangalore Airport (BIAL), also waiting for its IPO, and which they hold through Fairfax India. In addition, their biggest investment, Eurobank, is held at a carrying value well below its market value, and even the market value represents only 6 times rapidly growing earnings, and is the largest company by market cap in Greece.
All in all, still seems to be doing very well and I have no excuse to reduce this position, oversized as it may already be.
