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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks G / Alphabet (GOOG)
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Author: tecmo ⎊☼  😊 😞
Number: of 446 
Subject: Long Term Valuation
Date: 09/18/26 6:53 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 5
morganstanley.com - Article tofreeornottofree ltr

I found this on the BRK board, and then asked Gemini to forecast some valuation scenarios, here is what it came up with...

Scenario             2031 FCF Yield    Implied Market Cap    Implied Share Price    5-Yr Annual Return (CAGR)    Key Assumptions / Drivers
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bull Case 1.5% Yield $20.33 Trillion $1,640 36.7% High market premium for dominant AI & Cloud ROIC.
Report Base Case 2.0% Yield $15.25 Trillion $1,230 29.1% Morgan Stanley standard 2.0% hyperscaler yield benchmark.
Bear Case 3.0% Yield $10.17 Trillion $820 19.1% Higher required yield due to elevated cost of capital.

(stock is trading at $345 now)

tecmo
...

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Members reply directly to tecmo here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 446 posts about Alphabet. The article-length ones it recommended most:
Judge's Ruling · 24 recs · 2025
Alphabet's Century Long Bet · 23 recs · 2026
Will the Sexy Six Strut or Stumble? · 19 recs · 2025
2Q Summary 2026 · 18 recs · 2026
Up about 50% this year · 17 recs · 2023
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