No. of Recommendations: 3
Appreciate the comments. Can we take another swipe at comparing 5 groves.
For me.
Grove 1: $23.10 AT operating earnings for 2028 FY non manufacturing, service, and retail. Assume P/E of 20.1. Slightly higher due to recent decline in 10 YR treasury, but lower than S&P 500 (non mag 7). Keep in mind Treasury rate of 3.99% implies P/E of 25X for no growth.
Gets per share value of $222.24
Grove 2: Equities less OXY & KHC stock. Included OXY preferred. $297.7 BB less anticipated taxes.
Gets per share of $117.12
Grove 3:
KHC, OXY & Berkadia.
Based on current prices.
Gets per share value of $10.23
Grove 4:
Cash, etc.
I include railroad cash $4 BB
I include YTD estimated retained earnings of $7.1 BB
I exclude reserve of $26.4 BB
Net is $372 BB
Gets per share value of $172.45
Grove 5
Earned premiums times 3.3% average annual after tax underwriting profit performance per 2024 BRK Buffet annual letter. 2024 was 8% ish and 2025 was 6.5% ish.
So $88 BB earned premiums times 3.3% times P/E of 12.5 (estimated insurance average for peers, much lower than the operating units).
Calculates to $36.38 BB
Gets per share value of $13.43
Total share value of $539.03
Can you pinpoint the hopefully few areas we differ?
