*                         9/9      9/16     9/23     9/30/24
S&P 500 Index             5408.42  5626.02  5702.55  5738.17
Trailing 12 month PE      26.78    27.80    28.25    28.39
Trail Earnings yield      3.73%    3.60%    3.54%    3.52%
Forward 12 month PE       22.64    23.49    23.80    23.95
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.42%    4.26%    4.20%    4.18%
90 day tbill yield        5.13     4.97     4.75     4.68
10 year tbond yield       3.72%    3.66%    3.73%    3.75%
Arezi Ratio               1.37     1.38     1.34     1.33
Fed Ratio                 0.84     0.86     0.89     0.90

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 54%
stocks, 46% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the May-Oct part of the year. - Bearish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 24%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 70%.

Elan

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