Post #43300 by PucksFool on the US Policy board

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So many shoes left to drop ...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ratings-agency-p-re...
Credit ratings giant S&P Global has said it is reviewing all its macro economic forecasts in the wake of Donald Trump's sweeping world trade tariffs this week, a move likely to fuel concerns of a renewed wave of credit score downgrades.

The firm, whose ratings judge the creditworthiness of thousands of companies and more than 130 countries, said the scope and size of U.S. President Trump's new tariffs had exceeded most expectations.

It said it would publish its revised forecasts next week, although initial assumptions include a jump in U.S. inflation that leaves it closer to 4% by the end of the year compared with the 3% it had previously factored in.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chief-strategist-fo...
Just after the US election, when Wall Street was all-in on the prospects of a business-friendly President Donald Trump, Peter Berezin was sounding the alarm.

Berezin and his team at the research shop BCA predicted that broad-based unilateral tariffs were coming — and that the new administration’s proposals would go well beyond what had been implemented in Trump’s first term. After this week’s tariff drama, Berezin’s December call has proved prescient. And if he’s also right about what’s next, then US stocks are nowhere near a bottom.

The strategist is sticking to his projection – among the most bearish on Wall Street last year – that the S&P 500 will decline to 4,450 by year-end. That would mark a nearly 18% drop from current levels. The price of oil, meanwhile, may fall to $50 a barrel from around $63 currently “for bad reasons: lack of demand.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-feds-top-recess...
One of the Federal Reserve's preferred recession indicators has this week deteriorated as fast as it did in 2008, the latest sign that bond investors are bracing for a sharp economic slowdown as a result of U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs.

There are many metrics economists and investors use to try to predict a downturn. The gap between two-year and 10-year Treasury yields for instance, is a bond market favourite.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is said to favour the difference between the yield on three-month Treasury bills and their expected yield in 18 months.

The rationale is that this spread best reflects very near-term rate expectations in a way the gap between two-year and 10-year Treasuries does not.

When recession is looming, the spread narrows and turns negative. However, the Fed's rate-hiking cycle that started in March 2022 flipped this spread into negative territory and kept it there as yields on T-bills were still high.

On Friday, this spread was at minus 113 basis points, its most negative since last October, but crucially, set for its biggest one-day increase since late 2008, when the global financial crisis roiled markets.

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