*                         4/3      4/10     4/17     4/24/23
S&P 500 Index             4109.31  4105.02  4137.64  4133.52
Trailing 12 month PE      23.88    23.82    23.93    23.83
Trail Earnings yield      4.19%    4.20%    4.18%    4.20%
Forward 12 month PE       19.73    19.75    19.86    19.80   
Fwd Earnings Yield        5.07%    5.06%    5.03%    5.05%
90 day tbill yield        4.85     4.91     5.14     5.14
10 year tbond yield       3.48%    3.30%    3.52%    3.57%
Arezi Ratio               1.16     1.17     1.23     1.22
Fed Ratio                 0.69     0.65     0.70     0.71

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 59%
stocks, 41% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 39%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 83%.

Elan

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