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So we arking and counting China.

John Kirby at the W today,

"China has influence in Iran in Tehran. They have the ability to have conversations with Iranian leaders that we can't and so what we have said repeatedly.

We would welcome a constructive role by China using the influence and access that we know they have to try to help to stem the flow of weapons and munitions to the Houthis."

Do you think China want to help us? or is it more likely they want the USA to remain mired in this swamp for another 20 years?

If ever there was doubt about the Biden Admin's incompetence in Foreign Affairs, this should remove all doubt.

sorry for the typo's.... smart guys like you can decode I'm sure.

The worst China could do is say 'no'.

But they do have some interest in keeping the shipping lanes open. So they might ask the cargo ships be exempt. They wouldn't care if an Arleigh-Burke was attacked, but those can take care of themselves.

bighairymike: Do you think China want to help us? or is it more likely they want the USA to remain mired in this swamp for another 20 years?

If ever there was doubt about the Biden Admin's incompetence in Foreign Affairs, this should remove all doubt.

Actually, it make sense.

China -- whose own economy is in a tailspin -- has financial interests in Egyptian ports, which are currently mostly empty. The longer commercial ships stay away from the Red Sea, the more money China loses. And they're losing a lot of money.

And early last year, China helped broker a deal between archrivals Saudi Arabia and Iran.

While it's doubtful China could pull it off -- and their own ships aren't in jeopardy -- Beijing could see advantages in building a reputation as a protector of global commerce and also get the money flowing into those ports again.

So, no, it's not a sign of 'incompetence' -- it's actually pretty reasonable -- but the odds are razor slim.

Do you think China want to help us? or is it more likely they want the USA to remain mired in this swamp for another 20 years?

Even if they don't, you gain some diplomatic points by putting a spotlight on their recalcitrance. If nothing else, if and when you end up having to take more direct action, it's one less thing for other nations to second-guess you about. At least you asked, and China said no - if you hadn't even asked, people could after-the-fact claim that you didn't exhaust your options for non-military solutions to the problem. Which is probably why this ask is being made (or repeated, most likely) in public rather than just diplomatic channels to Beijing.

I mean, this seems like basic Diplomacy 101. It would be malpractice to not even make a public ask of China to talk to Tehran - it's all upside, and it's a critical step even if you know they're going to refuse to get involved. There's no incompetence on display here; it would be a sign of incompetence if an Administration's State Department didn't check that box as part of their efforts.

BMH If ever there was doubt about the Biden Admin's incompetence in Foreign Affairs, this should remove all doubt

Actually, NO. Your assessment is such it reveals you need some seasoning and reading in the area.

<snip>
NatSec Daily spoke to foreign officials and experts to gauge their reactions. An official from the Indo-Pacific, granted anonymity to discuss their government’s own assessment, told NatSec Daily there is a strong belief that China will get angry about increasing transport costs and work to stop the missile attacks.

Others agree.

ANITA KELLOGG, a National Defense University professor who focuses on Chinese economic statecraft, said there’s validity in pushing China to pressure Iran to then lean on the Houthis. China has many investments in Egyptian ports, which are currently emptied as commercial ships navigate away from the Red Sea. “They’re losing a lot of money,” Kellogg said of Beijing.

China has shown a desire to broker deals in the Middle East. Early last year, it worked with Saudi Arabia and Iran — long-time regional adversaries — to restore relations between them. Beijing could see advantages in building a reputation as a protector of global commerce, especially while its own economy is reeling.

Kellogg said she was “skeptical” China could pull this off, as it would pose a potentially bigger diplomatic test for the country in the Middle East. But “it could happen for sure,” she continued. “I wouldn’t rule it out.”

Others would.

“If China is really determined to stop Houthi attacks, it will have to talk to Iran, but even there it’s not at all clear Tehran exercises that kind of control over their Yemeni ally,” said BILAL SAAB, who leads the defense program at the Middle East Institute. “There’s a difference between influence and control. Iran has the former but probably not the latter.”
<snip>

Knee jerk partisan responses is not what is needed when evaluating foreign affairs.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-secu...

The worst China could do is say 'no'.

But they do have some interest in keeping the shipping lanes open. So they might ask the cargo ships be exempt. They wouldn't care if an Arleigh-Burke was attacked, but those can take care of themselves.

The Houthis aren't shootng at Russian and Chinese ships. Why do you think that is?

Even if they don't, you gain some diplomatic points by putting a spotlight on their recalcitrance.

With who? That's like asking Germany to intervene with Libya after Mussolini took over Albania in 1939; the "points" scored don't really matter.
The Chinese have a naval presence in the Red Sea. They haven't lifted a finger to guarantee Freedom of the Seas and they're not going to.

It's Western arrogance to assume that the Chinese give a rip about international diplomatic points or not.

I mean, this seems like basic Diplomacy 101. It would be malpractice to not even make a public ask of China to talk to Tehran - it's all upside, and it's a critical step even if you know they're going to refuse to get involved.

It is Diplomacy 101. It's Diplomacy 102 to a) understand that they're going to give you a noncomittal answer that amounts to "pound sand" and b) what to do about it.

It's Western arrogance to assume that the Chinese give a rip about international diplomatic points or not.

No one cares what the Chinese think.

Before the U.S. gets into a proxy shooting war with Iranian clients in the Middle East (if that's where we end up), our allies want to know that we've at least explored every easy option to resolve it diplomatically. And that they have cover with their electorate so that none of their political opposition can come in and say that they (or their American allies) missed an opportunity to solve this diplomatically.

You check the box. It may indeed be a vanishingly small chance that Chia will pick up the phone and tell Tehran to knock it off, or even tell them to talk to the Americans. But you have to make the trivial effort to at least ask China to do it, and then repeat the ask in public when it fails, so that you've done your due diligence before considering other options.

That's basic statecraft, not incompetence. Of course they're likely to tell you to pound sand. But you don't assume it, and not even bother to check.

Before the U.S. gets into a proxy shooting war with Iranian clients in the Middle East (if that's where we end up), our allies want to know that we've at least explored every easy option to resolve it diplomatically. And that they have cover with their electorate so that none of their political opposition can come in and say that they (or their American allies) missed an opportunity to solve this diplomatically.

Militarily the only allies that matter are France, the UK, Italy and India. Of those 4 only India is the one you have to make any kinds of asks of China to so as to maintain niceties. Nobody else has any kind of naval or strike assets in the area.

It may indeed be a vanishingly small chance that Chia will pick up the phone and tell Tehran to knock it off, or even tell them to talk to the Americans. But you have to make the trivial effort to at least ask China to do it, and then repeat the ask in public when it fails, so that you've done your due diligence before considering other options.

They should do this just so the Foggy Bottom people can claim they're doing something, but it won't amount to anything.

Of course they're likely to tell you to pound sand. But you don't assume it, and not even bother to check.

China's strategic incentive is to encourage the disruption of shipping lanes when it concerns goods not bound from or headed to their ports, and they're doing that around the globe.

It is Diplomacy 101. It's Diplomacy 102 to a) understand that they're going to give you a noncomittal answer that amounts to "pound sand" and b) what to do about it. - Dope

=======================

It's seems to me the Chinese best move would be to tell Biden sure we will help. While telling the Iranians to feign getting pressure from China while all the time keeping the Houstis supplied. The Houthis keeping banging away but leave Chinese shipping alone. And surely the USA would not attack Chinese infrastructure in Egypt since the Chicoms are now being so helpful with Iran.

Anytime Biden calls out China for lack of results, they can simply say they are making progress, give it more time. Biden will let them string us along for several years before risking direct US action in Iran. What's not to like?

bighairymike: What's not to like?

Pay attention. China is losing money. A lot of money. And it has nothing to do with the Houthis not targeting Chinese ships or Egyptian ports. And the longer this drags on, the more ships that avoid Egyptian ports and the Red Sea routes, the more money China loses.

For Chinese businessman Han Changming, disruptions to Red Sea freight are threatening the survival of his trading company in the eastern province of Fujian.

Han, who exports Chinese-made cars to Africa and imports off-road vehicles from Europe, told Reuters the cost of shipping a container to Europe had surged to roughly $7,000 from $3,000 in December, when Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi movement escalated attacks on shipping.

"The disruptions have wiped out our already thin profits," said Han, adding that higher shipping-insurance premiums are also taking a toll on Fuzhou Han Changming International Trade Co Ltd, the company he founded in 2016.

The rupture of one of the world's busiest shipping routes has exposed the vulnerability of China's export-reliant economy to supply snarls and external demand shocks.

https://www.reuters.com/world/red-sea-crisis-press...

Because they're stupid. Cargo goes to and from everywhere. Just because it is a US ship doesn't mean it isn't bound for China. Or from China. They almost never sail empty.

China's economy is dependent on the US economy. Yes, they are motivated. They need our dollars stream.

Pay attention. China is losing money. A lot of money. And it has nothing to do with the Houthis not targeting Chinese ships or Egyptian ports. And the longer this drags on, the more ships that avoid Egyptian ports and the Red Sea routes, the more money China loses. = CO

What is to stop China from communicating to the Houthis leadership, exactly which ships have a Chinese interest and the Houthis leave them alone. Everybody wins...

For their cooperation, the Houthis are assured a continues weapons supply from Iran under the cover of fake Chinese pressure on Iran.

Chinese shipping is safe from the Housthis because of the partnership.

Chinese infrastructure is safe from US Houthi-oriented retaliation since the USA is grateful for Chinese help with Iranians.

Iran and China both benefit from the wear and tear on the USA policing the Middle East continuing as long as possible.

What is to stop China from communicating to the Houthis leadership, exactly which ships have a Chinese interest and the Houthis leave them alone. Everybody wins...

They already are. The other guy doesn’t understand the full picture:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-secu....

But China might be enjoying watching the rest of the world squirm. The Houthis won’t target Chinese and Russian ships transiting the Red Sea, a senior militant official said last week.

China doesn’t mind losing money so long as everyone loses…more.

PM me if anyone knows a good way past paywalls.

archive.is

"If ever there was doubt about the Biden Admin's incompetence in Foreign Affairs, this should remove all doubt."

It is obvious you haven't thought this through in the slightest. You are just repeating what you have been told to repeat by your political masters and you are incapable of even questioning it. Stop accusing others of being incompetent when you cannot even be a competent US citizen and educate yourself.

Be better. Stop ruining this country with ignorance.

I can't get archive.is to work. The capcha goes back to the capcha.

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