No. of Recommendations: 4
Thanks for posting that. Enjoyed it. Certainly feed into my bearish anxiety about owning productive businesses at high prices.
Seems like the equities crash, has been coming now for a long time. If and when it arrives, it will certainly be painful for many.
Will be interesting to see what Berkshire has been doing lately with its cash flows from operations. Will we see a higher allocation to longer duration bonds and nothing happening in equities or even equity sales?
I imagine Berkshire is glad a very large percentage of the firm intrinsic value is in wholly owned subsidiaries and counter cyclical insurance operations. Although an Apple haircut will be quite painful.
Still, the $50 Billion p.a. going in higher yielding bonds makes the previous lack of elephants problem go away. There would be a limitless supply of debt to buy.
Will certainly be interesting to see if Berkshire does a small pivot, at least with the free cashflow. Since that is so huge, even that can add up to a significant pivot over a few years.
As an individual, it is all about personal circumstances.
Know one knows anything. That said, it does indeed look like the halcyon days are over. The common psychology appears to be:
A. Yes, equities might crash but the ones I have selected will be ok.
B. Yes, the evidence does point towards difficult years ahead for equities but the party is still going. Let's stay another while. This punch is good.
