Post #21 by tecmo on the Microsoft board

Stocks A to Z / Stocks M / Microsoft (MSFT)

Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (3)

Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!

No. of Recommendations: 5

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/25/microsoft-msft-q3-...

A solid quarter for sure with EPS rising 20% over last year. I am less confident that earnings can continue to grow at this rate, I think a number closer to 15% is more likely.

Here are some numbers for those interested....

EPS		2.95	+20%	vs 2.82
Revenue		$61.86	+17%	vs 58.3B
Stock		$390	+27%	vs $368


Valuation (TTM)
	Revenue	: $236B
	EPS	: $11.56
	Stock	: $390

Forecast (Guesses) --> This time next year...
	Revenue	: $260B
	EPS	: $13.11
	Stock	: $415

My "model" assumes a contraction of PE back down to around 30 and a P/S just above 10 (from current levels of 36 and 12.7). MSFT is now my single largest individual holding and I don't think I would trim unless the stock traded well above $450 / share (which is possible - but unlikely) this quarter. My central expectation would be $385 / share at the end of this quarter.

tecmo
...

Reference : Stock traded up to $406 after the earnings release.

Print the post

Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!

No. of Recommendations: 1

^^Here are some numbers for those interested....^^

Thanks again tecmo!

It appears unpredictable how cloud computing market share changes overtime, but it would be very surprising if there were not significant scale advantages. Consequently if you want to benefit from the durable earnings from cloud services, it would a good strategy to hold both Microsoft and Google together and win long-term no matter who provides most of the services twenty years from today.

Print the post

Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!

No. of Recommendations: 1

I don't think I would trim unless the stock traded well above $450 / share (which is possible - but unlikely) this quarter. My central expectation would be $385 / share at the end of this quarter.

FYI: When it traded above $460 / share; I started to think about lightening up but never pulled the trigger. Once again the market continues to surprise me.

tecmo
...

Print the post

Post New

Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (3)

Prev | Next

Announcements

Microsoft FAQ

Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

A community forum supporting civilized, and highly helpful, self-educating investors that come together for Shrewdness and merry spirits. These message boards closely follow the look and feel of the old message boards at boards.fool.com prior to the boards redirected to discussion.fool.com. Shrewd'm is not affiliated with the comprehensive and excellent investment website, The Motley Fool (TMF), in any way. The Shrewd commmunity here has owed, and continues to owe, gratitude to The Motley Fool for nurturing a culture of jovial irreverence towards Wall St, and that tradition will continue here.