Post New

The Warren Buffett era is ending. Here are five investing lessons from the GOAT

https://archive.ph/2025.11.21-133342/https://fortu...

“…Berkshire shareholders have never needed to study Buffett’s investing magic. They could just buy Berkshire stock and let him do the work, with spectacular results. But that option evaporates on Jan. 1, 2026, leaving the great question: Is Berkshire Hathaway so immersed in Buffett’s way of investing that his successors will carry it on institutionally? Or is Buffett unique in so many ways that Berkshire can never hope to continue his staggering performance?
Buffett’s 1977 letter to shareholders may suggest an answer. He described the criteria of a truly great, enduring business, as understood by him and his longtime business partner, Charlie Munger. The criterion of “enduring,” he wrote, “eliminates the business whose success depends on having a great manager…Of course, a terrific CEO is a huge asset for any enterprise…But if a business requires a superstar to produce great results, the business itself cannot be deemed great.”
Buffett is obviously a superstar, and it’s hard to see any inherent factors, other than Buffett, that have made Berkshire Hathaway so hugely successful. He seems to have chosen excellently with Abel and Berkshire’s other top executives. But the world won’t know how good they really are until they’re on their own.
Has Buffett picked a successor as superbly as he picks stocks? After 60 years, it’s the hardest call Berkshire’s shareholders have ever had to make.”

Has Buffett picked a successor as superbly as he picks stocks? After 60 years, it’s the hardest call Berkshire’s shareholders have ever had to make.

If one has confidence in Warren it's a very easy call to make.

Has Buffett picked a successor as superbly as he picks stocks? After 60 years, it’s the hardest call Berkshire’s shareholders have ever had to make.


If one has confidence in Warren it's a very easy call to make.

I don’t think so. After 60 years of wildly successful stock picking (and investing capital in general), I am confident that Buffett can pick businesses with good prospects and low risk of blowing up.

Picking people who will have this ability is a completely different skill set from doing it oneself. Although I am cautiously optimistic about Abel, I think Buffett’s track record in picking collaborators is much less impressive. I am thinking of David Sokol, the crooked Haslams of Flying J notoriety, the 3G Capital guys, Gen Re’s Ronald Ferguson and Joseph Brandon, and AIG’s Maurice Greenberg and his son Evan at Chubb, and I have probably missed a few. My examples mostly involve integrity and not capital allocation skills, but I think the point remains - doing something well oneself is not the same as choosing someone else who can do it.

Regards, DTB

"Picking people who will have this ability is a completely different skill set from doing it oneself. Although I am cautiously optimistic about Abel, I think Buffett’s track record in picking collaborators is much less impressive. I am thinking of David Sokol, the crooked Haslams of Flying J notoriety, the 3G Capital guys, Gen Re’s Ronald Ferguson and Joseph Brandon, and AIG’s Maurice Greenberg and his son Evan at Chubb, and I have probably missed a few. My examples mostly involve integrity and not capital allocation skills, but I think the point remains - doing something well oneself is not the same as choosing someone else who can do it."

I think that's a fair summation. What I believe is a little bit different however is the fact that most of your examples were bolt on acquisitions or investments, whereas he and Greg worked side by side for a long time. You also mention people with questionable character he "chose" but conveniently left out a deep ocean of people he "chose" that were fantastic. Bottom line is we are moving into a new era and it is fair to keep an open mind as to the abilities of Mr. Abel and at the same that open mind includes the possibility that Warren has it right!

Picking people who will have this ability is a completely different skill set from doing it oneself. Although I am cautiously optimistic about Abel, I think Buffett’s track record in picking collaborators is much less impressive.

Point taken, I concur, and have mentioned this here when what I and others felt was Greg's less-than-brilliant performance at I think the 2023 annual meeting Q&A. (I was shouted down iirc)

My carefully considered approach now is to do nothing, but watch closely not only Greg's business performance, but also his own people-picking skills - while pondering how much "shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations" holds for corporations as well.

--sutton

Post New

US Policy FAQ

---

Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.