*                         11/10    11/17    11/24    12/1/25
S&P 500 Index             6728.80  6734.11  6602.99  6849.09
Trailing 12 month PE      27.97    27.95    27.61    28.57
Trail Earnings yield      3.58%    3.58%    3.62%    3.50%
Forward 12 month PE       24.37    24.36    23.67    24.47
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.10%    4.10%    4.23%    4.09%
90 day tbill yield        3.92     3.95     3.90     3.88
10 year tbond yield       4.11%    4.14%    4.06%    4.02%
Arezi Ratio               1.10     1.10     1.08     1.11
Fed Ratio                 1.00     1.01     0.96     0.98

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 65%
stocks, 35% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is normal. - Bullish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 55%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 87%.

Elan

Mechanical Investing FAQ

---

Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.