No. of Recommendations: 10
There's lots of questions about the international and long-term ramifications of the seizure of Maduro - and amazing praise due to the military for the execution of this operation, once the order was given. But I'm actually far more curious about the more prosaic questions about what happens in Venezuela over the very near term. Who is actually going to run the country in the next few days and weeks, and how?
Pres. Trump's comments today suggested that "we" - presumably the United States - are going to run the country in the short term. But how would that work? We have no personnel in the country. We haven't invaded with troops, we have no diplomatic staff there (the embassy was closed and all personnel withdrawn in 2019)...and while Trump left open the possibility of putting a large number of boots on the ground, that seems inconsistent with what his supporters would countenance. So how would "we" actually run the country?
If it's not the U.S. directly running the country, then other possibilities would be Machado or someone else from the opposition party in coordination with the U.S. But Trump's comments on Machado seem to pretty clearly indicate that we're not looking for her to leave Spain and head back to Venezuela. And we haven't taken any steps to dislodge anyone else in the Maduro government, so there doesn't seem to be a plausible mechanism for her or anyone else from the opposition to take over.
Perhaps we're thinking that Delcy Rodriguez will be a compliant partner? Seems unlikely - she's a committed Chavista and loyal supporter of Maduro, and has already thrown water on that idea. We can threaten her with an invasion, of course - and no doubt she's being told that she has to follow U.S. demands. But that seems unlikely to get her to toe the line.
I suppose another possibility is for one or more military generals to take charge. No doubt some are feeling a wee bit unsettled in their position, given the complete and utter failure to defend against the U.S. marching in and capturing their President. A Rodriguez regime will be sorely tempted to put one or more military officials up against the wall for that failure, and maybe they decide that a sharp turn away from Chavism into an alliance with the U.S. can preserve their skins. But given that the military is filled with Chavistas loyal to the administration, that seems more like a recipe for civil war rather than a smooth takeover leading to a U.S. partner state.
The President's press conference was genuinely confusing. They obviously couldn't have had any prior arrangements with anyone on the Venezuela side about a post-Maduro government. They seem to be ruling out Machado or any other opposition partners. But they didn't roll in with any troops or personnel that would allow the U.S. to run the country directly. So - what's the plan for who's going to be in charge of Venezuela for the next few days and weeks? It sure seems like the idea is that it will just be the Maduro government (minus Maduro), but hoping that they'll now privatize the oil industry and give it to U.S. companies and stop the drug trade for us? I genuinely can't figure out what even the short-term strategy is....
