No. of Recommendations: 4
Instead, it makes sense to value Apple the same way as I value the railroad or the utilities
I don't think it makes sense to value Apple the same as a railroad. Based on what you wrote previously, Apple, at a current P/E of 33, is wildly "overvalued", because you claimed all P/E ratios must eventually fall to a more reasonable value of 15.
In fact, you wouldn't have touched AAPL back in September of 2018, when it's P/E ratio climbed to a lofty value of 18, thereby making it "overvalued" according to your measuring stick. However, people who followed the Peter Lynch philosophy to "buy what you know", having bought iPhones themselves, and watched their friends upgrade to a new $800 phone every chance they got - they would have bought Apple shares at $55 back then, and enjoyed a return of 450% in less than 5 years.
Apple is another example of a megacap tech company that can unlock billions of dollars of new revenue streams by leveraging their current technology. For example:
1. They take 30% of the revenue of every app sold in the App Store, so what will the revenue be when a flood of new Generative AI apps hit the market?
2. How much will they make if they release a mixed reality headset?
3. Are they working on Autonomous Driving software or even a new EV?
Because you don't know what future revenue streams these could bring, your P/E or "fixed multiple" analysis (which, yes, could be applied to a railroad) won't work with Apple.
