No. of Recommendations: 7
"I spend more time thinking about this than any other investment issue."
It's a good thing to think about. Asset allocation affects portfolio return more than individual stock selection, and there's no agreement between experts. Buffett recommends a 90/10 allocation between stocks and short term treasuries, whereas Bogle recommended a 25/75 allocation for a 75-year old investor.
A 2016 paper applying the Kelly criterion
sites.math.washington.edu: PDF documentcalculated the following, optimal allocations for a stock/T-Bill portfolio. Assuming historical volatilities the optimal allocation came down simply to the difference between the expected returns of stocks and T-Bills. (result at bottom of page 8)
4 percentage point expected difference, 100% stocks
3 percentage point expected difference, 75% stocks
2 percentage point expected difference, 50% stocks
1 percentage point expected difference, 25% stocks
0 percentage point expected difference, 0% stocks
Surely one's personal situation must be taken into account.
