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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Non-US Stocks
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Author: Dope1 ⎊  😊 😞
Number: of 86275 
Subject: Re: Vance Failed. No Deal.
Date: 04/12/26 11:25 AM
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I hope that the Administration has a plan to deal with the two obvious risks to doing this. The first, of course, is the devastating global economic impact this will have. We're now at the point where nearly all the oil that was in transit before the war has reached its destination port. So now starts one of the biggest energy crises in modern history (Trump does love to do things that are record-breaking, never in history). It's going to be destructive for everyone - and particularly the Gulf states who are along with Iran going to lose a lot of their revenue.

China gets 45% of their oil through the Gulf. They're going to be burning up phone lines to Tehran telling them to make a deal.
The other thing are the mines themselves - the Chinese aren't going to be gung-ho about sailing their brand new pretty Navy through mine infested waters. They'd rather the US Navy do that.

So the solution here is likely to be: blockade all tankers carrying Iranian oil, regardless of whose flag they carry. It's unlikely China will let Iran re-flag their ships because that would mean a) China taking Iran's side, openly b) China really pissing off the other Gulf states, from which they buy lots of oil.

Reason b) is why you won't see Chinese destroyers escorting Iranian tankers.

The Russian-flagged tanker that went to Cuba was a "so what". Putin sent them a load of oil and didn't get paid for it. Humanitarian crisis delayed a bit and Russia got zero dollars.

If the Chinese send anything to the Gulf...it'll be to help clear mines.
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This community has written 86,214 posts about US Policy. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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