Post #2338 by tjscott0 on the Macroeconomic Trends and Risks board

Personal Finance Topics / Macroeconomic Trends and Risks

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I listen to Peter Zeihan on Geopolitical subjects.
He does short videos: https://zeihan.com/newsletter/

The latest:https://zeihan.com/all-that-bitchin-wont-keep-chin...
He believes China as an inflential economic force is time limited due to a demographic issue.

The Chinese are dying out. They already have more people aged 54 and over than 54 and under, and within ten years they will not have enough people under age 60 to run an economy. So it doesn’t matter who you are, it doesn’t matter what your producer export or import.

You need to assume that that trade relationship is going to go to zero. Doesn’t matter if you’re exporting soy or beef or semiconductors or ethane or anything. Zero zero is where this is going. It doesn’t matter what you import from China, whether it’s transformers or wire or process chemicals or fertilizer or anything. It doesn’t matter. It’s going to zero.

The only wiggle room here is the time frame. Either the Chinese die out over the next ten years and it goes to zero, or the Trump administration puts into place and owners tariffs. And by November 1st, or maybe even before it goes to zero, either way it is going to zero. So everyone needs to plan for that happening.

So much for their lock on rare earth materials. Processed rare earth materials are a strategic priority. Rare earth material processing is a dirty, polluting activity. We have left it to China in the past. Perhaps it is time for our nation to take control of our destiny & strategic need for such a product.

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