No. of Recommendations: 2
But even if they did, the oil companies wouldn't really be in a position to go in and invest many billions of dollars over several years with the Chavista government remaining in place. How do you figure you won't just get nationalized out of your new investment and have all those shiny new assets seized, the way you were back in the day? I mean, Rodriguez is probably as Marxist as Maduro ever was. It's not like taking out Maduro - and just Maduro - will turn Venezuela into a safe place for multi-year multi-billion dollar investments. I mean, it's probably a rough financial proposition to make major investments in oil infrastructure anywhere, with WTI oil at only $57....but this seems like a particularly rough sell to your investment committee.
I agree it's loony. But on the face of it, that's what I see. I was surprised a few weeks ago when they oil companies expressed no desire to invest in oil infrastructure and new fields, because that meant to me the admin didn't sound out oil companies in advance - when that's the only real thing you'd get interested in down there. You move in a fleet without the troop ships, and haven't sounded out the oil companies on the QT? If you listen to the narrative, Trump expects the oil companies to invest and then get paid back. Are we gonna guarantee that payback? How will that work? And I no longer think Marxism is much of a thing with Maduro or the VP, but hatred/despising the USA? Ya, that's a big thing - a unifying thing in Latin America for political tribes in some areas, but at one point 82% of Venezuelans had a favorable view of the US. Don't know how they see us now. Someone on the old boards used to go down there near the border with Colombia regularly.
I think what we're seeing is a lack of preparation ahead of time - looks like we're winging it. Crossing my fingers and hoping for the best.
