based on the major investments made the past ten years, why should we be optimistic that stock picking, or takeover deals, will beat an index? Other than the huge Apple win, what do you see to justify that confidence?

Well, I just laid out my reasoning specifically for why we should NOT be optimistic on that front. I imagine you saw it. https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=697552250

Separately, evaluating Mr Buffett's recent stock portfolio performance without counting the Apple position is a bit like evaluating an ocean without considering the water, isn't it?

As for the future of the portfolio of investments:
I do think we can expect a moderate one-time lift from capital deployed in the next bear market, whenever that may be. A bit of the old sell-high-buy-low is good for the pocketbook. The picks don't have to be particularly market beating; merely avoiding big losers works well, and that is Berkshire's traditional super power. One of my favourite sayings is "you make most of your money in bear markets, you just don't realize it at the time". The word "realize" has two meanings, of course.

Jim

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

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