No. of Recommendations: 5
Domino's GAAP earnings per share have roughly tripled in the past decade -- but part of that was buying back something like 40% of the float. I don't think the same level of EPS growth is likely going forward. Back of the envelope, if you take $17.5/share in TTM earnings and pencil in a 12% growth rate, you get around $31/share in GAAP EPS in 2030. Put whatever multiple on that you think is reasonable. A P/E of 18 would be equivalent to a share price of $555, an 18% total (not annualized!) return. The current 26x (!) multiple gives you $806, about a 71% total return. What's that, 11%/year, not adjusted for inflation? And who's eager to pay 26x earnings for that? Ted or Todd, apparently.
Meanwhile, you can get Domino's U.K. (DOM.L) for something like 11x trailing earnings / 12x forward earnings. And since you mention the yield, it's 4.25%. The gross margin is around 16%, I think -- same ballpark as DPZ. The returns on capital aren't nearly as good, and growth prospects may be limited, but depending on how you model it, it might be a better investment.
People love to pick success stories that sold for a high multiple and went on to deliver spectacular returns as evidence you shouldn't be afraid to pay up for a high-quality business -- Costco, Amazon. My only problem with this is I don't know if I'm looking at a Costco/Amazon or something like a CarMax that's going to start at a P/E of 30 and end up at a P/E of 12.
I own a dink of DPZ. Don't want to pay capital gains on it. Irrational. And I might have just talked myself into DOM. Slightly more rational.
No. of Recommendations: 2
To be fair, T or T probably paid about $400-410 for their shares and are probably already sitting on a 15% profit and higher dividend rate.
