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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: FlyingCircus ✧  😊 😞
Number: of 6243 
Subject: Seasonality - relative lens
Date: 05/28/24 11:16 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 9
Most of you have seen and read a lot about seasonality - specifically, weakness in the summer months whether it's sell SPY/QQQ/IWM in May or sell in June upon MACD/PPO weakness, buy in Octoboer, the January barometer, etc etc.

Here's a picture of relative seasonality between EFA (ex-US developed large caps) and SPY. It indicates, as relatively noticeably weaker as the US market is in summer, EAFE is noticeably and significantly worse than the US. As in, over the last 20 years SPY has outperformed EAFE @67% of the time in every month between May and November, with a weird outlier in September (SPY's historically worst month.)

Here's a Stockcharts link. If necessary, drag the time bar at the bottom left to show 20 years of history.
stockcharts.com: Seasonality Chart | StockCharts.com

FC
lining up my summer risk reduction plans
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This community has written 6,227 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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