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BRKA's share price is down 4% today, with the broad market flat. Of course this is just a knee jerk to Warren's announcement of his retirement, but in my biased mind IV may just have dropped 4% as well. With no disrespect to Greg Abel, IV depends on future BV growth, and no one is as good at growing BV and IV as Warren.

In my opinion today's price drop is based on the Warren announcement, the earnings decline, and the revelation that the energy business is in Warren's opinion worth a lot less than in previous years.

I've been estimating IV recently to be about 1.56x BV, based of stock repurchases, but I may now lower my estimated IV to be about 1.50x BV, while recognizing that no IV model is accurate to better than about +/- 6%.

BRKA's share price is down 4% today, with the broad market flat. Of course this is just a knee jerk to Warren's announcement of his retirement, but in my biased mind IV may just have dropped 4% as well. With no disrespect to Greg Abel, IV depends on future BV growth, and no one is as good at growing BV and IV as Warren.

I agree, 4% seems quite reasonable, (although the number is now 5%), and maybe it should have fallen more.

The company will do fine, with its subsidiaries generally safe companies operating reasonably well, and a ton of cash as optionality. However, that optionality just took a big drop in value. We all knew that Buffett would be handing over the CEO job to Abel in the next 2-3 years, but now it is done (at least as of Dec 31st) and that $300b in optionality is now much more likely to be used by Abel rather than Buffett. I susspect that the fact that Buffett has decided to pass the reins is because he feels he is already not functioning as well as before. While I think Abel will be an excellent operations manager, I have no way of knowing whether he will be a great capital allocator, and it is virtually certain that he will not be as good as the greatest capital allocator we have known.

I sold my shares at around $425, and I would like to reestablish a small position in Berkshire eventually, but I am in no hurry, with just a 5% discount from a price which at $500/B-share is still up more than 25% in the last year, from levels that were already higher than the historical norm.

DTB

I suspect that the fact that Buffett has decided to pass the reins is because he feels he is already not functioning as well as before.

I doubt he is reading much, which is a barrier to his superpower of synthesizing vast quantities of information. Note how much he really struggled to squint at the printed page in front of him. I doubt it's because it was accidentally printed too small.

In the same vein, it was unfortunate to see Mr Jain's shakes...now not just his hands, but his wavering voice. I hope he is well, and not because of the work he does.

I saw The Who in concert recently. Roger Daltrey (age 81) said that not only was he going deaf, the usual bane of the rocker, but also starting to lose his eyesight. He said "At least I still have my voice, or I'd be going full Tommy".

Jim
(hoping to have mild squinting problems at 94)

jain's hands hands have been shaking for years if you watch the prior meetings

jain's hands hands have been shaking for years if you watch the prior meetings

Yes, true, but this is the first time I notice the pronounced waver in his voice.

Jim

I think jain will be at Berkshire for 3 more years and have Joe Brandon take over after. I can see Todd Combs take over in down the line too.

He made a comment in the first half of the Q&A about how he can't read the book with all of the Japanese firms. Surely there is a way that someone could create a way to make the writing a lot larger and project it onto a wall or something.

Nevermind. You may be right, it's not about the print size.

For the first time in 15 years I have no Berkshire having sold my remaining holding a few weeks ago and now Buffett takes a step back. It's a strange feeling.

My new "Berkshire" is Alphabet having added and put the funds straight to work buying at the mid and low 150s, taking a 5 year view on this one.

I'll certainly buy back into BRK again if the PBV nears 1.4 and below.

Still have my Berkshire albeit smallest amount since the 90's. My choice is Amazon.

Hand and head tremor with voice quaver are hallmarks of Benign Essential Tremor, or early Parkinson's Disease. They can be difficult to distinguish without detailed exam. Katherine Hepburn famously demonstrated the symptoms of BET.

It's possible a ketogenic diet could help reduce his symptoms (it reduces inflammation) if it's either of these, hopefully someone has suggested this to him. Maybe it wouldn't help, but a diet change seems easy enough to try for a few weeks. Minimal downside and the upside could be a useful improvement.

SA

It's possible a ketogenic diet could help reduce his symptoms (it reduces inflammation) if it's either of these, hopefully someone has suggested this to him. Maybe it wouldn't help, but a diet change seems easy enough to try for a few weeks. Minimal downside and the upside could be a useful improvement.


As the only physician in the family I told my mom when she turned 85 that she could finally do it.
She asked what?
I said, buy a Harley and a pack of Marlboros.
The phone line went silent for a long pause and then she said,
I think I will wait until 90!

My goodness, let the man have some chocolate cake!

Smufty

My goodness, let the man have some chocolate cake!

Hehe, sure, he understands risk, he's well equipped to make that decision himself - I won't stop him!

If I have a point, it's that I hope someone has mentioned this to him - he can't try it, or decide not to, if it hasn't even been suggested. I had a shoulder injury years ago (rotator cuff tendon) and I think a large part of why it barely recovered was that I didn't eat enough protein - but no-one suggested that, and even when I read about higher protein diets years later I didn't make any connection to the injury. If I'd started eating like I do now when I injured it, maybe I'd have had a 95% recovery after 2 years instead of 20 years :-(

SA

" My goodness, let the man have some chocolate cake!

Hehe, sure, he understands risk, he's well equipped to make that decision himself - I won't stop him!"

Good morning all. Many of you are not Americans. Please google the rates of obesity and diabetes in American children and adults, and the costs to treat these illnesses. I was hoping Buffett might promote sugar free drinks on his way out but I guess not. IF, adult questions were allowed at the annual meeting Buffett may have addressed this issue. Full sugar drinks, like cigarettes should have extra tax accessed, I wonder what Buffett thinks?

I had a shoulder injury years ago (rotator cuff tendon) and I think a large part of why it barely recovered was that I didn't eat enough protein

Was it a partial tear? I tore both of my rotator cuffs a total of 3 times lifting heavy weights. Each time, I had PRP (Platelet Rich Plasma) injections guided by ultrasound. The largest tear was the size of a Quarter. I healed in about 6 weeks, although it took about 3 months before I could resume my regular weight training schedule. My wife injured her rotator cuff, had surgery, and it took her over 6 months to heal. Tiger Woods and many tennis stars used PRP to heal fast. I also had this injection for a back injury and a buildup of arthritis. It apparently cleaned out the bits of calcium and ended the pain in a few weeks.

Here's a short description of the benefits:
https://www.sportsmedreview.com/blog/prp-cortisone...

We have sugar taxes added here in the UK on sugary drinks, not so in the US? For a regular coke in McDonald's it's 10p added over a diet coke.

from memory ciggies have added taxes too , no ?

“ For a regular coke in McDonald's it's 10p added over a diet coke.” Thanks, that makes too much sense for America. Apparently the soft drink industry owns both parties of self dealing grifters in our great country. It’s embarrassing.

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