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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: rayvt 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 12790 
Subject: Re: OT: S&P versus T-Bills?
Date: 07/10/2024 10:51 AM
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To me it's plain as the nose on your face that it makes no sense to buy a fund which is hugely overweight a few stocks unless you think you personally have a very good reason to be overweight those specific stocks at their current valuations.

I guess the current reason would be because that handful of stocks has been in a very strong trend. Remember: "The trend is your friend."

And, actually, why not just buy those top ~10 stocks instead of the fund, since they dominate just about _all_ of the major funds.



I guess 2001 is a long time ago--it's a dwindling population of current investors who remember their investments' behaviour the last time the market was this concentrated in a few "can't lose at any price" names : )

Perhaps it is just wishful thinking, but.....

The Growth Trend Timing that I use now (and didn't know about back then) had you sell on 1/7/2001 at S&P500 1318.55, and had you out (except for a couple of short whipsaws) until 4/21/2003 at S&P500 898.81. (Adj close from Yahoo)


The 43 week SMA instead of GTT would take you out sooner, on 10/8/2000 at 1374.17

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