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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: mungofitch ✹✺ SILVER
SHREWD
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Number: of 6243 
Subject: Re: OT: Money Manager Performance Based Fee
Date: 06/20/26 10:17 PM
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so if it isn't attractive this year, simply don't do it this year
...
I really liked that strategy when it was discussed in some depth (mostly provided by you) on the BRK board.
But it seemed like "this year" wasn't a great year to get an attractive return, nor the following "this year", ... and so I snoozed it.


As a crude rule of thumb, if VIX is over 25 it's usually easy to find great picks more or less at random, but when it's under 20 you have to be a bit more judicious.

The main thing I changed in the strategy was switching from a diversified (not too closely examined) portfolio to a short set of tickers that I knew reasonably well well.

The thing is, a cash-backed put outperforms the stock if the stock falls a lot, falls a little, breaks even, or rises a little. It underperforms if the stock rises a lot in the option's time interval. My insight is that very few stocks rise a lot in a lot of intervals one after the other, so if you do *repeated* cash backed puts on the same ticker over time you do pretty well. It has to be a firm you trust that the actual value isn't falling, and it isn't overvalued. It works spectacularly on a stock that is very out of fashion but which you believe is supported by value--lots of pessimism means high premiums, and a low and flat stock price, so you get the high premiums sometimes for years at a time. For example, Sears went bankrupt, but I made an IRR of 28% writing puts against it because it took so darned long to fail.

With that in mind, I only had to stop doing put writing on rare occasion when the option premiums are super low on everything.

Jim
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This community has written 6,227 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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