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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: nola622   😊 😞
Number: of 22351 
Subject: Re: The clown show has come for the data
Date: 08/03/25 9:05 AM
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Is monthly tax receipt data useful for this kind of thing? At least that is a definite number (I assume!). Obviously there will be changes since taxes are being changed by the new president, but even so, I would expect the numbers to give a useful guide on the economy.

Yes, monthly payroll tax collection is very useful in this regard and nobody covers it better than Bill (wabuffo). You can't chain it together sequentially, you have to compare payroll tax receipts to the same week the prior year. There are all kinds of distortions otherwise - end of year bonus season hits in January, high earners start out paying towards social security but hit their limit mid-year at some point. You can slice and dice the data to see government jobs only (looking for DOGE cuts to start materializing, etc).

Here is a link to twitter where Bill posts his payroll tax receipt analysis. He updates fairly often. Still very healthy compared to the narrative this week FWIW.

X (Twitter): Bill on X: "final US Federal payroll tax collection data for July continues to thumb its nose at the thesis that employment income (& therefore, the labor m
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This community has written 21,861 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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