Post #660 by rnam on the Macroeconomic Trends and Risks board

Personal Finance Topics / Macroeconomic Trends and Risks

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Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital

I want to point out that there are no experts on the subject at hand. Economists have analytical tools and theories to apply, but no economist and no tool will produce a conclusion in this instance that we can follow with confidence. There have been no large-scale trade wars in the modern era; thus, the theories are untested. Investors, businesspeople, academics, and government leaders will all give advice, but none of them is much more likely to be right than the average intelligent observer. The things on which everyone will agree are obvious, such as the likelihood of higher prices. The less obvious truths will be harder to discern.

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/nobod...

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