No. of Recommendations: 9
But even FSD limited to Cybercabs with some remote supervision in most cities would be a pretty big deal, if they can do it while keeping the hardware price down to $30k.
I mean, that obviously depends on what the overall economics are of the business. Obviously there's operating costs as well - if AV competitors with higher hardware costs end up having lower operating costs, running with a cheaper car might not be much of an advantage. If it turns out that even with hardware price of less than $30K, autonomous vehicle rides are still comparable in expense to ordinary for-hire services like cabs and Uber that use drivers, then it wouldn't be that big of a deal for the public or the cities they live in (though it could be very bad for those drivers). And if it's a capital-intense low-margin competitive business, it wouldn't be that big of a deal for Tesla, either.
Lots of unknowns. An autonomous driving service would be a technological marvel, but whether it's much of a business is a whole 'nother story. An instructive example is commercial air travel. To someone in the early 1900's, the idea that people could actually fly in an airplane would have been incredible beyond belief - and the idea that people could fly anywhere in the country for a few day's wages would have seemed utopian. And inexpensive commercial air travel has transformed the world. But the business of air travel has been a horrific one for the companies and their investors, as pithily encapsulated by Warren Buffett's observation that "if a farsighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk, he would have done his successors a huge favor by shooting Orville down.”
