No. of Recommendations: 1
albaby1 wrote:
The President's press conference was genuinely confusing. They obviously couldn't have had any prior arrangements with anyone on the Venezuela side about a post-Maduro government. They seem to be ruling out Machado or any other opposition partners. But they didn't roll in with any troops or personnel that would allow the U.S. to run the country directly. So - what's the plan for who's going to be in charge of Venezuela for the next few days and weeks? It sure seems like the idea is that it will just be the Maduro government (minus Maduro), but hoping that they'll now privatize the oil industry and give it to U.S. companies and stop the drug trade for us? I genuinely can't figure out what even the short-term strategy is.... I expect Trump has an inside man in Venezuela, trying to take power. Oil motivated the coup, but will be costly to extract. (Venezuela's heavy oil can be extracted at a profit when oil prices are $100, but not when oil prices are $50.) Oil prices will be volatile tomorrow.
In the next few days, the inside man will try to consolidate power (recruit allies). The name will emerge at some point. Either a civil war will erupt, or martial law imposed with some general in charge. Given the vast amount of oil wealth, I would guess the generals will find agreement with enough wealth to go around for those in power.
=== links ===
Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, after tripling around 2010.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by...Venezuela's Oil Reserves Are Probably Vastly Overstated, July 1, 2016
"Was this massive increase in its proved reserves a result of huge new oil discoveries in Venezuela? No, it was actually a function of how proved reserves are defined. Reserves and resources are often confused, but their distinction is very important. Venezuela's reserves additions have been a result of rising oil prices, and this is a source of frequent misunderstanding on the topic on reserves. ... It has been known for decades that the Orinoco Belt likely contains over a trillion barrels of oil. But this oil is very heavy, and as a result it is expensive to extract and upgrade. Thus, a very small fraction was historically classified as proved reserves."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2016/07/01/ve...U.S. Crude Oil Price chart
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx... 