Post #1000 by weatherman on the Macroeconomic Trends and Risks board

Personal Finance Topics / Macroeconomic Trends and Risks

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note, this was pre-iran bombing.
found an unusual amount of agreement from various macro sources. (stonex, zeihan, jpm, poskar, klement)

convergence of events june-july :
- as q2 positive earnings reported, look for unusual amount of weak\no earnings forecasts for q3 period
- capex going below trend
- trump tariff baseline at 10% is still quadruple of 2024. ~50% sentiment that trump will not taco >10% for most, china remains highest.
- first sign of shelf shortages during china shipping pause in spring
- expected senate vote on budget bill adding $3t debt

(again, oil shock and war cost excluded)

at least 2 sources indicated ~15% mkt decline would be select buying opportunity.

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