Be nice to people. This changes the whole environment.
- Manlobbi
Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
No. of Recommendations: 2
It's absolutely remarkable that the SEC signed off on this structure, incredible.
"When SpaceX Insiders Can Start Selling Shares After the IPO
SpaceX’s IPO lock-up is not a standard 180‑day restriction. Instead, the company has built in a phased release schedule that lets most insiders sell portions of their shares in the months after listing, with some conditions tied to performance and time milestones Yahoo Finance+1.
Key Early Release Dates
Q2 Earnings Window (~Aug 11, 2026): Up to 20% of eligible locked‑up shares can be sold.
If the stock trades ≥30% above the IPO price on 5 of 10 consecutive trading days before this date, an additional 10% can be released Darrow Wealth Management.
Time‑Based Tranches (70, 90, 105, 120, 135 days post‑IPO): Another 7% of eligible shares unlock at each of these dates Yahoo Finance+1.
Q3 Earnings Window (~Nov 9, 2026): Up to 28% more shares can be sold Darrow Wealth Management.
Lock‑Up Ends (Dec 8, 2026): The remaining shares are fully released Darrow Wealth Management.
Example Cumulative Release
Event Base Release
Max Release (with performance bonus)
Q2 Earnings 20%
30%
Day 70 +7%
+7%
Day 90 +7%
+7%
Day 105 +7%
+7%
Day 120 +7%
+7%
Day 135 +7%
+7%
Q3 Earnings +28%
+28%
Lock‑Up End 100%
100%
Special Cases
Elon Musk is excluded from the accelerated schedule and remains subject to the full 180‑day lock‑up Yahoo Finance+1.
Current employees must also follow company trading policies, which may differ for executives or those with material non‑public information (MNPI) Darrow Wealth Management.
Why This Structure?
SpaceX’s staggered approach:
Reduces the risk of a sudden sell‑off at the 180‑day mark.
Increases the tradeable float sooner, which can help with Nasdaq‑100 “fast entry” eligibility (15 trading days post‑IPO) Yahoo Finance+1.
Balances early insider liquidity with market stability.
Bottom line: Most SpaceX insiders can start selling from August 2026, with more opportunities in October and November, and the full lock‑up lifting in December 2026."
The question is, once the index forced buying is completed over the next 21 days, and retail is filled, WHO< will be the buyers to take out these insiders regardless of the, projections made.
No. of Recommendations: 1
" Elon Musk’s next move could be a SpaceX-Tesla merger big enough to challenge Nvidia Corp.(NVDA) for the title of most valuable company on Earth.
Just three sessions into its IPO, SpaceX has already surged nearly 50% to roughly $2.6 trillion, leaving Tesla Inc.(TSLA) and its $1.5 trillion behind.
The wider that gap runs, the cheaper Tesla gets to absorb, and the more control Musk keeps over whatever emerges.
The Math On A $5 Trillion Giant
The case for a merger, laid out this week by Bloomberg columnist Liam Denning, is about control as much as size. Any deal would be all-stock, so SpaceX would absorb Tesla by issuing new SpaceX shares to Tesla’s holders.
The more SpaceX is worth relative to Tesla, the fewer shares it has to print to get the deal done.
SpaceX could offer Tesla a one-third premium, valuing it north of $2 trillion, and Musk would still end up with about 74% of the votes.
That premium does three jobs at once. It gives Tesla holders a reason to approve the deal despite the company’s sliding numbers, it locks in Musk’s control, and it triggers the first slice of his $1 trillion Tesla pay package, which converts into yet more SpaceX stock.
Add it up and the combined company lands near a $5 trillion headline valuation, right in Nvidia’s neighborhood.
SpaceX would be paying about 138 times forward EBITDA for a cash-burning carmaker, and its own outside investors would watch their stake shrink from roughly half the company to under a third.
Morningstar pegs SpaceX’s fair value at $780 billion, less than a third of what the stock fetches on a 4% float.
The Real Threat Is The Stack, Not The Market Cap
SpaceX has already absorbed xAI at a $250 billion valuation and agreed to buy coding startup Cursor for $60 billion. Folding in Tesla would add real-world robotics data from Full Self-Driving and the Optimus robot, layered on top of Starlink’s orbital footprint.
For Nvidia(NVDA), the real risk is what these customers are trying to become. Tesla, xAI and SpaceX are among its biggest chip buyers today, but Musk has pitched building his own fab to cut that cord. He calls it Terafab, a roughly $25 billion plant he says would be like TSMC’s gigafab “but way bigger,” producing Tesla’s AI5 chips and custom silicon for orbital satellites.
Polymarket thinks there is a 69% chance NVDA retains its crown as largest company by the end of the year.
Kalshi traders price a SpaceX-Tesla merger before May 2027 around 45% to 55%, up from the mid-20s earlier this year.
SpaceX is a national security asset with classified satellite work, and Tesla carries deep manufacturing and consumer exposure in China. Regulators may balk at parking defense infrastructure and a global automaker under one untrammeled umbrella."
No. of Recommendations: 8
SPCX buying TSLA: Not a matter of if but merely when. Only way that Elon can keep his shell game going and hide the failures of both the self driving software and the Optimus robot. Per court cases TSLA itself claims that their self driving package is L2 requiring drivers to have both hands on the wheel...if they dared to claim to be L4 they would open open themselves up to having a huge liability exposure. Of course all one has to do is look on youtube or even X and watch video after video of the self driving software making serious errors. As far as the Optimus robot I've yet to see it perform any tasks that would lead to people wanting to buy it especially at a projected $20,000-$30,000 price. In any case I would expect it to be an all stock offer of at least $500 accompanied by incredibly optimistic predictions about both the robotaxi and the robot. And of course Elon can say that with all the companies "under one roof" and in his control they will have his full focus, etc. Regardless of how crazy/insane the valuations of his companies are I would not risk my $ betting against them....that strategy has not done well.
No. of Recommendations: 0
" Regardless of how crazy/insane the valuations of his companies are I would not risk my $ betting against them....that strategy has not done well."
Don't forget rolling Solar into tesla. The Houdini of wall street!!
No. of Recommendations: 4
if you have ever been involved in a fab start up from scratch ( I have) , you will recognize the absolutely massive challengess to do this. from design, construction, labour force to yield.... its years away....
