No. of Recommendations: 0
I think you need to check your numbers. I have Shrewd Sam running out of money in 1987No, that's not true. I stand by my numbers. Sam does NOT run out of money if he spends around $80K annually in today's dollars at the start, and around $100K annually in today's dollars after Year 18.
It's easy to see why. Every market decline was followed the next year or the year after by a market rebound.
* The 13% decline in 1966 was followed by a 29% rebound in 1967-68.
* The 11% decline in 1969 was followed by a 27% rebound in 1970-72.
* The horrible 47% decline in 1973-74 was followed by a 51% rebound in 1975-76.
You can check the S&P 500 annual return numbers in my previous message by going to
https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical... As for inflation, I assume a) Sam paid off his house at age 60, so he doesn't experience rent inflation, and b) his SS payments have a COLA adjustment to keep up with inflation. He may have a less luxurious lifestyle toward the end, but he won't run out of money.
both used withdrawal rates that were unsustainably highWithdrawing 80K from $1.6M is a 5% withdrawal rate, which is pretty normal. A study by Bengen in 1993 showed that a 4% withdrawal rate is safe, and recent studies have increased that to 4.5%
BTW, I agree with you about diversification. I just don't think people should be scared out of stocks and go 100% to cash when they have a time horizon of 5+ years.
