Jim wrote:
I think it's worth considering that there are strong bull markets, and there are other times. In strong bull markets, the S&P is nearly impossible to beat and there is no real point in trying.

It is not often that I dare disagree with the mighty Mungofitch! :) But in this case, let me propose that it isn't actually as difficult as one might think.

Back in 2000 or so I realized that once in a while the market dishes up some amazing opportunities that can be pretty easily identified by marking points of investor capitulation. After a decade of study (1990s) I narrowed it down to a few values that do this best, and some of those I've posted on the MI board over the years. These extreme points of capitulation tend to propel the market forward for a significant period of time. What I've found best in ending those periods of strongly bullish markets are economic indicators such as the monetary rate, inflation rate, and similar. Indicators like the Bear Catchers are also employed for this purpose. In those cases I just go to CASH and wait for the next opportunity. This results in being invested about 80% of the time and in CASH the rest.

This results in just two years when the S&P 500 beats out the system based on a period of thirty-five years. I've marked those two years in bold. It is also important to choose what to invest in during the strongly bullish periods. In most cases over this 35 year time period it has been tech - e.g., Nasdaq 100 or similar.

       Zee System  S&P 500
Years  ROI         ROI
1990   45.28%      -6.56%
1991   112.55%     26.31%
1992   -2.18%      4.46%
1993   10.00%      7.06%
1994   1.20%       -1.54%
1995   37.58%      34.11%
1996   23.03%      20.26%
1997   33.50%      31.01%
1998   118.52%     26.67%
1999   148.13%     19.53%
2000   29.60%      -10.14%
2001   220.22%     -13.04%
2002   42.65%      -23.37%
2003   85.06%      26.38%
2004   14.58%      8.99%
2005   2.12%       3.00%
2006   9.82%       13.62%
2007   4.91%       3.53%
2008   2.03%       -38.49%
2009   151.62%     23.45%
2010   26.87%      12.78%
2011   22.22%      0.00%
2012   31.47%      13.41%
2013   49.15%      29.60%
2014   13.67%      11.39%
2015   1.31%       -0.73%
2016   29.95%      9.54%
2017   22.04%      19.42%
2018   1.62%       -6.24%
2019   73.56%      28.88%
2020   102.26%     16.26%
2021   38.36%      26.89%
2022   -5.15%      -19.44%
2023   103.28%     24.23%
2024   28.62%      14.70%

CAGR    GSD    Sharpe  DDD3   BBW   Drawdown
39.60%  29.79  1.28    1.99%  18.6  -33.52%

The last two signals for this trading strategy arrived on 3/23/2020 and 10/12/2022.

So I do think there is a point in trying!

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