Post #19155 by mungofitch on the Berkshire Hathaway board

Please be patient and understanding when interacting with others, and avoid getting frustrated or upset if someone does not respond to your posts or if a discussion does not go as you expected. Remember that everyone is entitled to express their own perspectives. Furthermore, even when you don't entirely agree, try to benefit in some way from it.

- Manlobbi

Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)

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It makes no assumption about the rate of growth of BV or IV

Perhaps I have misunderstood what you're doing, in which case I apologise.

But you said "In my opinion the trendline of price versus BV provides a reasonable estimate of IV at any point in time over that period."

Simply put, no it doesn't.

Or rather, it may have by coincidence in the past, but there is no reason at all to think that it will do so now or in future. The current point on any trendline built from past data should be ignored, whether it's price or book or any other value metric. It's the BMW chart fallacy.

Jim

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