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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: musselmant ✧☼  😊 😞
Number: of 6244 
Subject: Re: NDX 100 Momentum Strategy - Code Repository
Date: 04/20/26 5:53 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 6
1. Core continuous results table (MOST important)

Key rows to show:

Strategy CAGR Sharpe Max DD
Mom 1 33.7% 0.780 -81%
Mom 1 timed 37.0% 0.855 -76%
Mom 5 23.8% 0.742 -69%
Mom 5 timed 23.6% 0.790 -50%
Mom 10 21.2% 0.735 -71%
Mom 10 timed 21.8% 0.813 -48%
SPY 10.5% 0.626 -55%
QQQ 10.0% 0.488 -83%

2. Worst rolling returns

Strategy Worst 1Y Worst 3Y Worst 5Y Worst 10Y
Mom 10 timed -25.5% -4.8% 1.8% 5.1%
SPY -43.3% -14.5% -2.3% 1.2%
QQQ -67.6% -25.0% -9.4% 0.7%

worst-case 5-year and 10-year outcomes beat the market

3. Start-date sensitivity test

“first trading day of any month” test is excellent.

Strategy Avg Start CAGR Worst
Mom 1 timed 28.0% 3.8%
Mom 5 timed 18.2% 6.4%
Mom 10 timed 16.9% 7.1%
SPY 11.3% 4.1%

4. Lookback sweep (short version)

Just summarize:

Top-1 best: ~18 month momentum
Top-10 best: ~9 month momentum
1-month holding period best

5. Profit concentration

Top winners contribution:

Strategy Top 1% Top 5% Top 10%
Mom 10 9.4% 27.0% 39.3%

The strategy is not dependent on one giant winner.
This statistic helps credibility.

6. Drawdown improvement from timing filter

Strategy Max DD
Mom 10 -71.6%
Mom 10 timed -48.0%

That’s a massive improvement.

But importantly:

timing did not always improve CAGR

Worst 10-year return still beats SPY
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Members reply directly to musselmant here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 6,227 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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